Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 139.221178 166.677346 200.129657 244.555348 303.042887 3.789460e+02 4.875525e+02
2025-03-16 102.322053 132.528180 173.609348 235.592143 330.631623 4.782159e+02 7.418472e+02
2025-03-23 89.195092 122.833637 172.797648 256.789991 404.617527 6.783176e+02 1.301149e+03
2025-03-30 76.727787 110.269715 163.310595 259.930708 449.414138 8.563432e+02 2.018645e+03
2025-04-06 68.883067 102.693734 159.170633 269.815860 510.283774 1.110577e+03 3.328046e+03
2025-04-13 60.832226 93.123897 149.271069 265.474349 539.238056 1.314082e+03 4.952457e+03
2025-04-20 57.846196 91.423420 152.738190 288.696299 644.685295 1.845715e+03 1.013811e+04
2025-04-27 54.849730 89.118505 154.451700 308.661534 754.969871 2.557699e+03 2.262732e+04
2025-05-04 51.794499 86.175300 154.223122 324.054622 863.627201 3.476727e+03 5.694877e+04
2025-05-11 48.633229 82.540631 151.814702 333.278523 960.407483 4.585637e+03 1.690060e+05
2025-05-18 45.412421 78.342014 147.409412 335.883855 1036.986881 5.826046e+03 6.530835e+05
2025-05-25 41.899583 73.131017 139.889502 327.604552 1065.713783 6.832479e+03 3.181440e+06
2025-06-01 38.620661 68.190935 132.601301 319.270473 1096.590124 8.135770e+03 1.265555e+08
2025-06-08 35.487089 63.230187 124.568794 306.692300 1101.586049 9.286523e+03 NaN
2025-06-15 34.948656 63.651937 129.460102 336.950192 1359.014997 1.655349e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 33.176158 61.202851 126.850462 341.463499 1482.223705 2.357306e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 31.982015 59.885970 126.907700 355.686554 1691.996662 3.930823e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 30.089262 56.805408 121.871811 349.433151 1753.409554 5.233973e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 29.789209 57.313047 126.548686 383.028418 2194.445713 1.391422e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 29.271207 57.251467 129.664644 412.189195 2682.363870 4.633016e+05 NaN
2025-07-27 28.546551 56.616334 131.043151 434.841028 3183.401223 2.279351e+06 NaN
2025-08-03 27.614919 55.381671 130.457418 448.483368 3635.272277 2.590210e+07 NaN
2025-08-10 26.512956 53.622098 128.019550 452.345918 3980.853034 7.268656e+10 NaN